10 xG per 90 minutes, which is insane. Lazio vs FeyenoordPredictionLazio ended up creating 2. 3 xG against Feyenoord in the first leg, which is their largest xG output of the season. However, they took one shot for the first 50 minutes of the match and all of their chances, including a penalty, came after Feyenoord were already up 2-0. image via fbref. comLazio are not a team built to play very direct over the opponent's press and be effective in doing so. They are going to try to continue to play out of the back, through the central parts of the pitch, and they will keep turning the ball over, giving Feyenoord easy transition opportunities with a deadly striker making runs off the last line of their defense.
The market hasn't upgraded Feyenoord after the win enough in my opinion. From a mathematical perspective, home field advantage is the Champions League is worth about 35 cents to the moneyline, so flipping the same match from one stadium to the other you would see a 70-cent difference in the moneyline price from the first leg. Feyenoord closed as a -120 favorite in Rotterdam, so they should be around +150, assuming there were no upgrades made given what happened in the first leg.
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They got completely overwhelmed by Feyenoord's high press and constantly were turning the ball over in build up play. The problem is because of how Maurizio Sarri wants his team to play, those high turnovers are going to keep happening. Sarri wants his teams to build out of the back with long sustained possession, using a lot of combination passing move the ball through the opponent's press. The reason they struggled against Feyenoord is because they hadn't seen a press that intense in Serie A this season. Napoli lead Serie A averaging 9. 3 high turnovers per 90 minutes, while Feyenoord are averaging 10. 6 in the Eredivisie and has 33 through their first three Champions League matches. The other problem with Lazio is although they are the number one team in Serie A in progressive passes and dribbles, they aren't turning many into high quality chances.
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Lazio vs Feyenoord Prediction | Tuesday Champions League PicksLazio vs Feyenoord OddsLazio look to avenge a 3-1 beatdown in Rotterdam just two weeks ago when they take on Feyenoord in the reverse leg in Rome. The Italian side is once again having a mediocre season in Serie A. Their three biggest matches of the domestic season came against Napoli, Juventus and AC Milan, and in those three matches they failed to create over 1 xG. They got demolished in the first half against Feyenoord in Rotterdam and quite frankly, there really isn't much hope for things drastically changing in this second leg, especially after their poor showing on Friday at Bologna.
Out of possession, Slot implements an aggressive high press where the fullbacks will often push forward leaving Feyenoord with a back three. There are often times you will see Feyenoord pressing with a front four in their 4-2-3-1 system going man for man against a back three or a back four. The results speak for themselves and they are prefect against a slow possession build up team like Lazio. Just watch how the first goal happened.
Lazio are only averaging 1. 03 npxG per 90 minutes, which is 11th in Serie A. They also are not utilizing the wide areas of the pitch, as Sarri wants them to try to play through the middle as Lazio have completed the fewest crosses of anyone in Serie A into the penalty area. Lazio especially struggle when they have to play good competition. In Serie A this season, they've played Napoli, Juventus and AC Milan, and in those three matches they've only created a combined 1. 7 xG. The must-have app for soccer bettorsThe best soccer betting scoreboardFree picks from proven prosLive win probabilities for your betsSlot's tactics at Feyenoord are super aggressive and were the reason why they won the match against Lazio.
Lazio – Feyenoord Rotterdam: Live score, updates and Match Lazio vs Feyenoord Rotterdam in the UEFA Champions League (11/7/2023): Live score, stream, statistics match & H2H results on Tribuna.com.
